Methodology
How does the Crisis Index work?
What the score means
Each monitored context carries a score from 0 to 100, updated through the day. It rises when a situation is being reported more heavily than is normal for that place, and when the reporting describes conflict rather than routine coverage. The scale is set per context, so a normally quiet country becoming busy registers as a rise, and the contexts can be read against each other.
What a change in it tells you
A score on its own is a level. What matters operationally is when it turns. Dated changes of state are marked on the record, so a reader can see when a context began escalating or cooling rather than inferring it from the shape of a line, and each one opens to the events that coincided with it.
Why one report is not another
Outlets are not treated as interchangeable. Each is assessed continuously on how its reporting stands up over time, how often it is ahead of the rest, and how much of the record it contributes to. An event several independent outlets confirm counts for more than one outlet reporting alone, and each source’s record is on its own page so the weighting can be checked rather than taken on trust.
From reporting to events
Many articles about one development are consolidated into a single event, with its location, the actors involved, the type of event and a short summary. Events are updated as further reporting arrives and settle once coverage tapers. Every event opens to the articles behind it, so any figure on the screen can be traced back to what was published.
Markets
Each context can be set against more than forty instruments across bonds, currencies, commodities, equities, volatility and rates, at a range of time lags, with the statistical significance of each relationship marked. Weak relationships are shown as weak. This is measured association and not a forecast of either the score or the price.
Limitations
- •Reflects media coverage patterns, not direct field intelligence
- •Detects and dates changes in the reporting, and measures how a score has moved ahead of market prices. Neither is a forecast of the score itself
- •Scores should be interpreted alongside other intelligence sources